EDWARD NORTON LORENZ

 

PUBLICATIONS

 

 

 

1950: Dynamic models illustrating the energy balance of the atmosphere.  J. Meteor., 7, 30-38.

 

1951: Seasonal and irregular variations of the northern hemisphere sea-level pressure profile.   J. Meteor., 8, 52-59.

 

1952: Flow of angular momentum as a predictor for the zonal westerlies.  J. Meteor., 9, 152-157.

 

1953: The interaction between a mean flow and random disturbances.  Tellus, 3, 238-250.

 

1953: A proposed explanation for the existence of two regimes of flow in a rotating symmetrically-heated cylindrical vessel.  Fluid Models in Geophysics, Proc. 1st Sympos. Models in Geophys. Fluid Dynamics, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins U., 73-80.

 

1953: A multiple-index notation for describing atmospheric transport processes.   Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 100-110.

 

1953: Displacement and intensification associated with variations of local angular momentum.   Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 164-170.

 

1953: The vertical extent of Jupiter's Atmosphere.  Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 123-127.

 

1954: A study of the general circulation and a possible theory suggested by it.   Sci. Proc. Internat. Assoc. Meteor., Rome, 603-608.

 

1955: Available potential energy and the maintenance of the general circulation.  Tellus, 7, 271-281.

 

1955: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation.  Scientific Report No. 1, UCLA, Dept. of Meteorology, July 1955.

 

1956:  Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction.  Scientific Report No. 1, Statistical Forecasting Project.  Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford, MA,

 

1957: Static stability and atmospheric energy.  Scientific Report No. 9, General Circulation Project, Starr, V. P., director, Geophysics Research Directorate of the Air Force Cambridge Research Center, 41 pp.

 

1960: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation.   Dynamics of Climate (R. L. Pfeffer, Ed.), Oxford, Pergamon Press.

 

1960: Maximum simplification of the dynamic equations. Tellus, 12, 243-254.

 

1960: Energy and numerical weather prediction. Tellus, 12, 364-373.

 

1961: A numerical study of the effect of vertical stability on monsoonal and zonal circulations. (with E. B. Kraus).  Changes of Climate, UNESCO, Belgium, pp. 361-372.

 

1962: Simplified dynamic equations applied to the rotating-basin experiments.  J. Atmos. Sci.,19, 39-51.

 

1962: The statistical prediction of solutions of dynamic equations.  Proc. Internat. Sympos. Numerical Weather Prediction, Tokyo, 629-635.

 

1963: The predictability of hydrodynamic flow.  Trans. N.Y. Acad. Sci., Ser. II, 25, No. 4, 409-432.

 

1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.

 

1963: The mechanics of vacillation.  J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 448-464.

 

1964: The problem of deducing the climate from the governing equations.  Tellus, 16, 1-11.

 

1965: Energetics of atmospheric circulation.  International Dictionary of Geophysics, Pergamon Press, 1-9.

 

1965: On the possible reasons for long-period fluctuations of the general circulation. WMO-IUGG Symp. on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, Technical Note No. 66, WMO-No. 162.TP.79, 203-211.

 

1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model.  Tellus, 17, 321-333.

 

1966: Atmospheric predictability.  Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction. The Travelers Research Center, Inc.,34-39.

 

1966: Nonlinearity, weather prediction, and climate deduction.  Final report, Statistical Forecasting Project, Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford, MA, 22 pp.

 

1966: The circulation of the atmosphere.  Amer. Scientist, 54, 402-420.

 

1966: Numerical experiments with large-scale seasonal forcing (with E. B. Kraus). J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 3-12.

 

1966: Reply.  J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 629-630.

 

1966: Large-scale motions of the atmosphere: circulation.  Advances in Earth Science, MIT Press, 95-109.

 

1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3]  World Meteorological Organization, No. 218, TP 115, 161 pp.

 

1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere.  WMO Bulletin, April 1967, 74-78.

 

1968: Climatic determinism.   Meteor. Monographs, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 25, 1-3.

 

1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion.  Tellus, 21, 19 pp.

 

1969: Three approaches to atmospheric predictability.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 345-351.

 

1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646.

 

1969: Studies of atmospheric predictability. [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4]  Final Report, February, Statistical Forecasting Project.  Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford, MA, 145 pp.

 

1969: The nature of the global circulation of the atmosphere: a present view.  The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, London, Roy. Meteor. Soc., 3-23.

 

1969: How much better can weather prediction become?  Technology Rev., July/August, 39-49.

 

1970: Climatic change as a mathematical problem.  J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 325-329.

 

1970: Forecast for another century of weather progress.  A Century of Weather Progress. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 18-24.

 

1971: An N-cycle time-differencing scheme for stepwise numerical integration.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 644-648.

 

1972: Investigating the predictability of turbulent motion.  Statistical Models and Turbulence, Proceedings of symposium held at the University of California, San Diego, July 15-21, 1971, Springer-Verlag, pp. 195-204.

 

1972: Barotropic instability of Rossby wave motion.  J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 258-264.

 

1972: Low-order models representing realizations of turbulence.  J. Fluid Mech., 55, 545-563.

 

1973: Predictability and periodicity:  A review and extension.  Proc. 3rd Conf. Prob. and Statis. In Atmos. Sci., Amer. Meteor. Sci., 1-4.

 

1973: On the existence of extended range predictability.  J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 543-546.

 

1975: Climatic predictability.   GARP Publications Series, April, pp. 132-136.

 

1976: Nondeterministic theories of climatic change.  Quaternary Res., 6, 495-506.

 

1976: A rapid procedure for inverting del-square with certain computers.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 961-966.

 

1976 : Limitations on weather prediction.  Colloquium on Weather Forecasting and Weather Forecasts: Models, Systems, and Users, Boulder, CO., Notes from a Colloquium, vol: 1 pp. 214 -218.

 

1977: An experiment in nonlinear statistical weather forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 590-602.

 

1978: A reply to comments by Franz Fliri. Letter to the editor, University of Washington, 249-250.

 

1978: Available energy and the maintenance of a moist circulation.  Tellus, 30, 15-31.

 

1979: Numerical evaluation of moist available energy. Tellus, 31, 230-235.

 

1979: Forced and free variations of weather and climate.  J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1367-1376.

 

1979: On the prevalence of aperiodicity in simple systems.  Global analysis, New York, Springer Verlag, 53-75.

 

1980: Noisy periodicity and reverse bifurcation.  Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci., 357, 282-291.

 

1980: Attractor sets and quasi-geostrophic equilibrium.  J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1685-1699.

 

1980: Nonlinear statistical weather prediction. [Abstract only]  WMO Symposium on the Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Weather Forecasting, Nice, Sept. 8-12, 1980, Collection of papers presented, Geneva, World Meteorological Organization, [1980]. pp. 3-8.

 

1982: Low-order models of atmospheric circulations.  J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 1, 255-267.

 

1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model.  Tellus, 34, 505-513.

 

1982: Some aspects of atmospheric predictability.  European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Seminar 1981: problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting, 14-18 September, Reading, Eng., March, 1982. pp. 1-20. 1982.  Also in Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting (D. M. Burridge and E. Kallen, eds.), Berlin Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag, 1-20.

 

1983: A history of prevailing ideas about the general circulation of the atmosphere.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 730-734.

 

[1983: Crafoord Prize announcement. Tellus, 36A, 97.]

 

1984: Formulation of a low-order model of a moist general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1933-1945.

 

1984: Estimates of atmospheric predictability at medium range.  Predictability of Fluid Motions (G. Holloway and B. West, eds.), New York, American Institute of Physics, 133-139.

 

1984: Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere.  Crafoord Prize Lecture, presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, September 28, 1983. Tellus, 36A, 98-110.

 

1984: The local structure of a chaotic attractor in four dimensions.   Physica, 13D, 90-104.

 

1984: A very narrow spectral band.  J. Stat. Phys., 36, 1-14.

 

1985: The growth of errors in prediction.  In Turbulence and Predictability in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Climate Dynamics, Soc. Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy, 243-265.

 

1985: Lyapunov numbers and the local structure of attractors.  Physica, 17D, 279-294.

 

1986: The index cycle is alive and well.  In Namias Symposium, Roads, J. O., ed.  California. Univ., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, SIO Reference 86-17, Aug., 1986. pp. 188-196. 1986.

 

1986: On the existence of a slow manifold.  J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1547-1557.

 

1986: Atmospheric models as dynamical systems.   Perspectives in Nonlinear Dynamics, World Scientific Publishing Co., 1-17.

 

1987: Deterministic and stochastic aspects of atmospheric dynamics.   Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences.  D. Reidel Publishing Co., 159-179.

 

1987: Low-order models and their uses.   Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences. D. Reidel Publishing Co., 557-567.

 

1987: On the nonexistence of a slow manifold (with V. Krishnamurthy). J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2940-2950.

 

1989: Effects of analysis and model errors on routine weather forecasts.  Ten Years of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Reading, England, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), pp. 115-128.

 

1989: Computational chaos: a prelude to computational instability.   Physica, 35D, 299-317.

 

1990: Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability?  Tellus, 42A, 378-389.

 

1990: Charney—a remarkable colleague.  In The Atmosphere—a challenge, the science of Jule Gregory Charney, Lindzen, R. S., Lorenz, E. N., and Platzman, G. W., eds.  Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, pp. 89-91.

 

1991: Chaos, spontaneous climatic variations and detection of the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change:  A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, M. E. Schlesinger, Ed.  Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., Amsterdam, pp. 445-453.

 

1991: The general circulation of the atmosphere: an evolving problem.  Tellus, 43AB, 8-15.

 

1991: Dimension of weather and climate attractors.   Nature, 353, 241-244.

 

1992: The slow manifold: What is it?  J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2449-2451.

 

1993: The Essence of Chaos. Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 227 pp.

 

1996: Predictability -- A Problem Partly Solved  Edward Lorenz

 

1996: The bulletin interviews.  WMO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2.

 

1996: The evolution of dynamic meteorology.  Historical essays on meteorology 1919-1995, J. R. Fleming, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3—19.

 

1998: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: simulations with a small model (with K. A. Emanuel).  J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 399-414.

 

2005 : Some reflections on the theoretical predictability of climate. [Abstract only]  Ed Lorenz Symposium, San Diego, CA, 8-14 January. American Meteorological Society.

 

2005: Designing chaotic models.  J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1574-1587.

 

2005: A look at some details of the growth of initial uncertainties.  Tellus, 57A, 1-11.

 

2006: Predictabilitya problem partly solved.  In Predictability of Weather and Climate, ed. Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn.  Cambridge University Press, 40-58.

 

2006: Reflections on the conception, birth, and childhood of numerical weather prediction.  Ann. Rev. Earth Planetary Sci., 34, 37-45.

 

2006: An attractor embedded in the atmosphere.  Tellus, 58A, 425-429.

 

2006: Computational periodicity as observed in a simple system.  Tellus, 58A, 549-557.

 

2006: Regimes in simple systems.  J. Atmos. Sci., 63,  2056–2073.  

 

2008: Compound windows of the Hénon map.  Physica D, 237, 1689-1704.

 

2008: Reply to comment by L.-S. Yao and D. Hughes.  Tellus.  To be published.

 

 

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS (LECTURES, AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL WORKS, ETC.)

 

 

1970: Progress report on atmospheric predictability.  Never printed.

 

1972: Limits of meteorological predictability.  Prepared for the American Meteorological Society, February.

 

1972: “Predictability:  Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?'' Talk presented Dec. 29, AAAS Section on Environmental Sciences, New Approaches to Global Weather: GARP.  Sheraton Park Plaza Hotel, Boston, Mass.

 

1979: Dynamical and empirical methods of weather forecasting.  November.  Unknown context.

 

1987: The Ideal Hadley Circulation: Fundamental Flow or Fairy Tale?  [Starr lecture]

 

1991: Reply to questionnaire.  For Kyoto Award.

 

1991: A scientist by choice.  Kyoto Award lecture.

 

1997?:Climate is what you expect.  [Prepared for publication by NCAR; unknown if actually printed.  Possibly related to presentation at NCAR colloquiem, Applications of statistics to modeling the Earth’s climate system, November 1994.]

 

1999?:The simplest chaotic Hamiltonian system.  Physica D.  Withdrawn ?

 

[date unknown]  Chaos and the weather forecast.

 

2007: Foreword.  Empirical methods in short-term climate prediction, van den Dool, H., ed.  Oxford University Press, pp. xi-xii.

 

2008: The butterfly effect.  Premio Felice Pietro Chisesi e Caterina Tomassoni award lecture, University of Rome, Rome, April.